000 WTPA41 PHFO 292055 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024 Visible imagery this morning shows Hone's circulation is once again fully exposed, after an impressive burst of deep convection near the center overnight. Hone is, so far, continuing to successfully battle westerly shear, analyzed by CIMSS at about 45 knots, while moving over sea surface temperatures of about 28C. As mentioned earlier, the overnight ASCAT passes showed winds over 30 kt to the north of the center. Subjective current intensity estimates ranged from 2.5 from PHFO and SAB and 2.0 from JTWC. Various CIMSS objective intensity estimates came in slightly higher, but given the now once again fully exposed circulation, the advisory intensity was maintained at 35 kt. One of the Hawaiian definitions for Hone is mischievous, or to tease. Certainly Hone has been living up to its namesake as both the track, and especially the intensity forecast, remain quite challenging and complex. A low aloft, seen in water vapor about 270 nm north of Midway Atoll, is expected to dig southward. Hone's initial motion estimate is 290/6. The low level circulation, which has been moving west-northwest for quite some time, is expected to be pulled northwestward toward this low aloft and eventually get entangled with the circulation of the upper low. This will pull the low-level circulation of Hone more toward the north-northwest in a couple of days, and then as Hone and the mid- and upper-level circulation become aligned, resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific. There is decent agreement in the model guidance, given this rather complex interaction. The official forecast was nudged slightly more northward, toward TVCN and HCCA, but still close to the previous track. It should be noted that in the longer range, there are rather large differences in forward speed among the various guidance, with the models trending slower. At these time periods, the official forecast points were slowed down somewhat in deference to the guidance consensus, TVCN. If Hone can survive its current battle with westerly shear, there appears to be an opportunity for reintensification. The global models and SHIPS guidance suggest that the strong shear currently over Hone will eventually relax, and sea surface temperatures at that time will also be supportive of strengthening. The global models show a warm core redeveloping over Hone over the west Pacific in a few days, after the low levels and circulation aloft become well aligned. However, there is considerable variability among the guidance. The intensity forecast most closely follows IVCN, but it should be noted uncertainty is quite high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 172.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 21.7N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 174.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 22.9N 175.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 23.9N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 25.3N 176.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 26.5N 178.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 27.3N 178.3E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 28.7N 175.2E 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard/Foster