000 WTPA41 PHFO 291457 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024 Deep convection redeveloped very near the low-level circulation center of Hone during the past couple of hours, after the low-level center remained mostly exposed for a period of 12 hours beginning around 28/2200z. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 2.0 (30 kt) to 2.5 (35 kt). A 29/0825z ASCAT MetOp-C pass showed a swath of 30 to 35 kt winds to the north of the low level center. Given the decrease in winds noted in ASCAT and the satellite classifications, the initial intensity has been lowered once again with this advisory to 35 kt. Hone continues to move west-northwest or 285/8 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the next 36 hours as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with a developing mid-level low near the International Dateline. A turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected late Friday and Friday night with this general motion continuing through Saturday. The cyclone is then expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed Saturday night through early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The track forecast closely follows a blend of the multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous track forecast. This track takes Hone toward the northwest Hawaiian Islands over the weekend, where there is some potential for impacts to Kure, Midway, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. Hone will remain under the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear of 35 to 45 knots during the next 36 hours, with slowly increasing mid-level moisture. The strong shear should limit the potential for intensification during this time, and the forecast reflects little change in strength through Friday. Beginning Friday night and Saturday, vertical wind shear will begin to decrease while mid-level moisture continues to increase. This in combination with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 C and high ocean heat content should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone if it manages to survive the hostile environment it will be in through Friday. The intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening Friday night through the remainder of the forecast, with Hone nearing Typhoon strength early next week to the west of the International Date Line. The intensity forecast was adjusted downward slightly during the next 36 hours, then adjusted upward a tad beyond 36 hours to better align with the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 21.0N 171.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.6N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.0N 175.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 22.9N 176.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 24.1N 176.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 25.8N 177.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 178.0E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 28.0N 175.0E 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema