000 WTPA41 PHFO 290859 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Deep convection continues to develop to the north and northeast of low-level circulation center of Hone this evening. The center had been fully exposed for most of the afternoon and early evening hours as the cyclone continues to get hammered by 40 to 45 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 2.0 (35 kt) to 3.0 (45 kt), while a 06z SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 40 kt. These estimates in combination with the ragged appearance of Hone support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move west to west-northwest or 280/8 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the next 36 hours as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with a developing mid- level low near the International Dateline. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected Friday and Friday night, followed by a more northerly motion and an increase in speed on Saturday. The cyclone is then expected to shift westerly Sunday through early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The track forecast closely follows a blend of the multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous track forecast. This track takes Hone toward the northwest Hawaiian Islands over the weekend, where there is some potential for impacts to Kure, Midway, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. Hone will remain under the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear of 35 to 45 knots and dry mid-level air during the next 36 hours. This should lead to slight weakening of the cyclone with convection continuing to flare to the north and northeast of the low level center. Beyond 36 hours, vertical wind shear will gradually trend lower while mid-level moisture increases. This in combination with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 C and high ocean heat content should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone if it manages to survive the hostile environment it will be in through early Friday. The intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual strengthening through the end of the forecast period. This generally follows the intensity consensus guidance through the forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made to the previous intensity forecast through 48 hours, with a slight upward adjustment beyond due to the increasingly favorable environment expected around Hone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.8N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.0N 172.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.4N 173.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 21.8N 175.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 22.4N 175.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 23.4N 176.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 24.9N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 27.0N 179.6E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 27.5N 176.5E 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema