Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Discussion



000
WTPA41 PHFO 282052
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024

Due to strong vertical shear, Tropical Storm Hone continues to be
asymmetric with its low level center intermittently exposed and deep
convection mostly confined to the northern semicircle of its
circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 30 to 55 kt. The various objective
estimates were 30 to 40 kt. A blend of the estimates would support
lowering the intensity to 40 kt. However, the initial intensity has
been conservatively held at 45 kt for this advisory due to a recent
burst of deep convection near the system's center.

The strong vertical shear affecting Hone is not expected to abate
over the next 3 days. However, SSTs beneath the tropical cyclone are
very warm, which may keep deep convection active, resulting in the
maintenance of an asymmetric tropical storm through at least the
next couple of days. The consensus of the objective aids
shows a slow weakening over the next couple of days, but a slight 
increase in strength from day 3 onward. The FSU phase space
diagrams for the various global models keep Hone as a warm core
system even after interacting with the upper tropospheric low. For
now, the forecast maintains Hone as a tropical storm a little
longer than the previous package, then maintains it as a 
post-tropical cyclone through day 5. It should be noted that there 
is a possibility Hone may survive as a tropical cyclone and even 
intensify to a typhoon west of the International Date Line.

Hone's initial movement is 280/7 kt and is being steered by a weak
low- to mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days based on the tight
clustering of the objective guidance. As Hone approaches the
International Date Line, the tropical cyclone is forecast to 
interact with a developing low aloft, which will result in a turn 
toward the northwest. The various global models handle this 
interaction differently, resulting in greater spread in the 
objective guidance and greater uncertainty toward the end of the
forecast period. Considering the uncertainties in the forecast 
track and intensity, there is a potential risk of impacts to
Midway, Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls toward the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 20.6N 168.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 20.9N 170.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 21.2N 172.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 21.6N 173.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N 174.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 22.5N 175.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 23.4N 176.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  01/1800Z 26.0N 178.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  02/1800Z 27.0N 178.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kodama



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