653 WTPA41 PHFO 281436 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 25 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Convection redeveloped over the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Hone shortly after the previous advisory, then collapsed a couple hours later allowing the LLCC to become exposed once again. It is clear the strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 knots is impeding any chance for intensification of this system at the moment. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and 3.5 (55 kt). In addition a 0845Z ASCAT pass showed several 40 to 45 kt wind barbs. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this interaction. Little change was made to the official track forecast which closely follows a blend of the FSSE, TVCE, and HCCA consensus track guidance. Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone forecast to become a post-tropical low on Friday, and dissipate by Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which remains closely aligned with a blend of the statistical and dynamical consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.5N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.8N 170.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 171.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.5N 173.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 21.9N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 22.4N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/1200Z 23.0N 176.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/1200Z 25.5N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema