296 WTPA41 PHFO 280847 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 The low-level circulation center of Hone became exposed earlier this evening, due to increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 35 knots. Even though the LLCC is displaced to the west of the persistent deep convection, the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and 3.5 (55 kt). As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this interaction. Little change was made to the track forecast during the next couple days, followed by a nudge to the north over the weekend to better align with the latest dynamical and consensus guidance. Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone forecast to become a post-tropical low by Friday, and dissipate on Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which remains closely aligned with the latest intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.4N 167.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.7N 169.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.1N 170.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.5N 172.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.8N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.2N 175.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/0600Z 23.0N 176.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 178.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema