000 WTPA41 PHFO 272033 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 22 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Some bursts of deep convection have been occuring in the storm's circulation over the past few hours, with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. However, the system lacks well-defined banding features and the area of cold tops continues to exhibit a hard western edge indicative of westerly shear. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 45 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB. This is also in good agreement with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Hone has been moving between west and west-northwest and the initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next 2-3 days. With this steering scenario, Hector should move on a west-northwestward to westward track through the period. The official track forecast is just a tad to the north of the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Global models show persistent and strong upper-level westerlies impacting Hone for the next few days. The SHIPS output diagnoses vertical wind shear on the order of 40 kt during the ensuing 48-72 hours along with dry low- to mid-tropospheric environmental air. So, even though the system should remain over fairly warm waters, the otherwise hostile conditions should lead to weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus. Hone is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 2-3 days and dissipate soon thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.1N 166.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.4N 167.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.8N 169.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 171.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 173.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.1N 175.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1800Z 22.7N 177.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch