000 WTPA41 PHFO 270246 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hone's low-level circulation center (LLCC) remained exposed in visible satellite imagery for most of the day, but the recent development of strong thunderstorms in the northern semicircle have since obscured it. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory is partially based on a 2013Z ASCAT pass, which also helped to refine the radii analysis. A subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 3.0/45 kt from PHFO, and UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 48 kt support assigning 50 kt for the initial intensity, especially given the recent increase in convective vigor. The initial motion estimate is 285/11kt. A surface high currently centered to the north of Hone will be the primary steering mechanism driving the cyclone generally west-northwestward the next day or two, with some increase in latitude and slowing in forward speed expected after midweek as the high shifts eastward. Track guidance remains well-clustered, and takes Hone into a environment characterized by increasingly strong westerly winds aloft. Despite the strong winds aloft, systems like Hone are typically able to produce strong winds and deep convection on their north side for a couple of days as they gradually spin down from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity guidance consensus IVCN (and official forecast) support this notion, as well as simulated satellite imagery based on ECMWF guidance. It is expected that Hone will produce sporadic bouts of convection to the north and east of the center as it moves west-northwest, while strong (30-40 kt) westerly vertical wind shear prevents the convection from persisting over the center. Hone is forecast to remain at tropical storm strength through the next 48-60 hours, then become a post-tropical low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. If future convective elements are unable to develop or move over the center of the cyclone, Hone may become post-tropical sooner than indicated here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 19.6N 162.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.8N 164.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.1N 167.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.5N 169.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.9N 171.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.5N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0000Z 22.2N 174.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard