000 WTPA41 PHFO 260850 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hone appears quite disorganized on satellite and radar this evening. However, the earlier exposed low level circulation center is once again obscured by layered cloud, and a ragged band of deep convection has redeveloped around a portion of the low level circulation center. The current intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the unanimous data-T numbers and current intensity estimates from the fix agencies. This could be generous, given Hone's messy appearance. The initial motion is 280/12. Deep layer ridging to the north of Hone is expected to maintain the system on a westerly track the next few days. Later in the forecast period, Hone is expected to be increasingly steered by the low level tradewind flow to the south of a vast subtropical ridge spanning much of the Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the latest official forecast is very similar to the previous. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows Hone is already in an environment of moderate shear. Over the next few days, Hone will continue to skirt along the southern periphery of the subtropical jet, subjecting the system to increasing westerly shear. This should continue the weakening trend, despite a gradual increase in sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The intensity forecast continues to agree well with the statistical and dynamical guidance, and dissipation is expected as a remnant low late in the week. Mahalo to both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters for gathering much critical data from Tropical Cyclone Hone the last few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 159.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.4N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.6N 163.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.8N 166.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 20.1N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.5N 170.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.9N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.6N 177.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard