000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052041 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a convective curved band on the west side of the cyclone and a cluster of strong thunderstorms with cold cloud tops of -70 Celsius just to the west of Henriette's surface circulation center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective and CIMSS objective intensity estimates. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, although 5-kt fluctuations are possible, while Henriette moves over slightly cooler water and through an increasingly inhibiting thermodynamic environment. Toward the end of the week, the thermodynamic environment is expected to become even more hostile while Henriette moves over the subtropical central Pacific waters. Therefore, some weakening of the cyclone is forecast through day 5. The official intensity forecast is based on the IVCN intensity consensus model and the Decay-SHIPS statistical aid. Henriette's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/13 kt, and a west-northwestward or westward motion should continue through day 4 while the cyclone is steered by a strong mid-level ridge stretching across the subtropical Central Pacific. Over the weekend, Henriette is expected to turn gradually northwestward in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the Central North Pacific. The NHC track forecast is based on the various consensus aids and is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 17.0N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.4N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 18.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 19.4N 139.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.3N 147.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 152.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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