Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271445
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

Hector has become less organized during the past 12-24 hours.  The 
center is now located near the western edge of a ragged convective 
mass.  Objective and subjective T-numbers have decreased and the 
initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of 
these estimates.  The environment ahead of Gilma does not look 
conducive.  Moderate westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and 
marginal sea surface temperatures should cause gradual weakening 
over the next 36-48 hours.  Hector will be moving over the cool wake 
of Gilma and this could result in a faster rate of weakening than 
indicated below.  The system is now forecast to become a remnant 
low in about 60 hours, and dissipate by day 4. 

Hector is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt.  A turn to the west
is expected during the next day or so as a low- to mid-level ridge 
builds to the north of Hector.  The latest NHC track forecast is 
near or slightly north of the previous forecast due to a more 
northward initial position, but it still lies near the model 
consensus. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 17.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown