Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270831
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

Hector appears a little less organized tonight.  Infrared satellite
images indicate that the convective pattern has become ragged with
a lack of banding features.  Accordingly, the objective and
subjective Dvorak classifications have decreased some, but blending
all of the estimates still yields an intensity estimate of 45 kt.

The storm is ingesting some dry air and appears to be feeling some 
influences of cool upwelled waters from Hurricane Gilma that passed 
through the area a few days ago.  It is starting to look 
increasingly likely that Hector is missing its window to strengthen 
any further.  Weakening will likely commence in a day or so when the 
shear begins to increase, and Hector is now forecast to become a 
remnant low by day 3.  This forecast remains near the high end of 
the model guidance.

Hector is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  A turn to the west 
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 
few days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the 
system.  No big changes were made to the track forecast, and this 
one lies fairly close to the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi