Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

142 
WTPZ43 KNHC 290232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024

Satellite imagery this evening shows that Hector is still losing 
organization.  The low-level center is now well-removed to the 
southwest of the convection, and there are indications that a new 
vorticity center is trying to form near the remaining convection.  
This development is distorting the circulation and stretching it 
into a northeast-southwest oriented trough.  Most of the various 
satellite intensity estimates are now in the 30-35 kt range, and 
based on them the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly 
generous 35 kt. 

A combination of cool sea surface temperatures near the forecast 
track, dry air entrainment, and southwesterly vertical wind shear 
should cause Hector to weaken further.  The new intensity forecast 
is based on the global models, and it has the system weakening to a 
remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less followed by degeneration 
to a trough between 36-48 h.  However, given current trends it is 
possible that Hector could weaken to a trough at any time.

Due to the disorganization, the initial motion is uncertain and is 
estimated to be 270/10 kt.  A general westward motion should 
continue until the system dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.2N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.3N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 17.3N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven