Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion

497 
WTPZ43 KNHC 282038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024

The low-level center of Hector has completely decoupled from its 
deep convection today. Visible satellite images and scatterometer 
data indicate the center is south of previous estimates, and the 
circulation still appears elongated with weak winds on the south 
side. Additionally, much of the deep convection from earlier today 
has collapsed, and cloud top temperatures have warmed to the 
northeast of the center. Despite its degraded structure, a recent 
ASCAT-B pass shows Hector is still producing tropical-storm-force 
winds in its northern semicircle, and the initial intensity is set 
at 40 kt.

The estimated motion of the storm is south of due west (260/8 kt). A 
subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should continue steering 
the cyclone westward during the next couple of days. There are no 
changes to the forecast reasoning, although the latest NHC forecast 
track is shifted southward based on the relocation of the center. 
Additional weakening is forecast given Hector's poor organization 
and the hostile environmental conditions it faces, namely the 
moderate west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the surrounding 
environment. Based on current satellite trends and the latest 
model-simulated satellite imagery, Hector is forecast to degenerate 
to a remnant low in 24 h and dissipate by 48 h. However, it is 
possible that Hector could open into a trough sooner than forecast. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 17.6N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 17.7N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 17.7N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart