000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector continues to produce a large area of deep convection, although it has become a little less organized this evening. Recent microwave imagery depicts that the system is starting to tilt due to 15-20 kt of westerly wind shear. A recent scatterometer pass of ASCAT-B depicted satellite derived winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have held steady for this advisory and range from 40-45 kt. Using a blend of ASCAT data and the intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at 285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge ridge to the north will keep Hector on a west-northwestward to westward motion the next day or so. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow a more westward motion will occur as the system is steered in the low-level flow. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions near the system are not very favorable as Hector will continue to deal with westerly wind shear, drier air, and moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. This should cause Hector to gradually weaken over the next few days. Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will struggle to produce organized deep convection in about 36 h, and open into a trough and dissipate in 60 h. This is reflected in the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.4N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion
28
Aug