000 WTPA43 PHFO 161434 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 11 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023 500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Over the last several hours, the southeastern edge of the low level center has been apparent at times on the CIRA ProxyVis imagery. Convection has been pulsing as it is sheared to the northwest of the center. An 0430Z HY-2B scatterometer pass showed 40 kt on the north side of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensities from PHFO, JTWC and SAB range from 2.5 to 3.5, while objective intensities range from 31 to 41 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, will hold the initial intensity at 45 kt. The initial motion is 280/12 kt, continuing a slightly north of west path. Greg continues to move along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. As it continues to the west today, it will gain some latitude as it reaches the western end of the ridge. A building deep layer ridge to the north will then help to steer Greg to the west-southwest Thursday night and Friday. There is little change in the forecast track, continuing to closely follow the HCCA and TVCA which remain near the middle of a relatively tightly clustered guidance envelope. Along this track, Greg will pass far south of Hawaii Thursday through Friday with no direct impacts to the islands. With the convection at times being displaced to the north of the center, Greg appears at times to be encountering some additional southerly shear, but remains over sufficiently warm waters. Little change is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours, however anticipate additional bursts of shear, which will hinder strengthening. Beyond 36 hours, the system will move over slightly cooler waters, and begin to encounter stronger shear from the west. The intensity forecast has been held at 45 kt through 24 hours, which is on the high end of the consensus models. Beyond that, the gradual weakening in the forecast follows the IVCN trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 11.8N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 12.1N 153.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.2N 155.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 12.1N 157.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 11.8N 160.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 11.4N 163.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 11.1N 165.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 10.1N 170.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster M Ballard