451 WTPA43 PHFO 150237 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023 500 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 Greg's convection continues to pulse, and remains concentrated on the west side of the center due to southeasterly shear in the vicinity. Objective Dvorak intensities range from 34 to 42 kt, and subjective intensities from PHFO, SAB and JTWC are between 2.5 and 3.0. Using a blend of these estimates, maintaining the initial intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion is 270/10 kt. Greg continues to move to the west on the southern edge of the subtropical ridge to the north. Expect little change in this over the next couple of days, with Greg heading in a west to slightly west-northwest direction. As the system reaches the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to weaken and slowly take a turn to the southwest. On this path, Greg will pass far south of the Hawaiian Islands Thursday and Friday, with no direct impacts to the state. The forecast track remains similar to the previous forecast, with some influence from the HCCA and TVCE. The track slows the forward progress a bit for hours 36 to 60 based on the HCCA and TVCE, and is a touch further north around hour 60. Greg remains over very warm waters, with weakening southeasterly shear. Over the next 36 hours, the shear is expected to weaken, which will allow Greg to slowly strengthen. The forecast intensity is on the high end of the consensus models during this time, and then follows the gradual weakening trend in the guidance. Between hours 48 and 60, Greg will move over slightly cooler waters, with an increase in deep layer shear, and mid-level dry air beginning to feed into the system. These all contribute to the weakening of the system between days 2 and 3, with Greg becoming post-tropical on day 4, and opening up into a trough and dissipating by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 11.3N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 11.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 11.7N 147.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 12.1N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 12.7N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 12.8N 154.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 12.6N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 11.8N 162.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster M Ballard