Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with
Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed
center of circulation.  An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed
that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the
north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates
suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT
data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this
morning.

Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  The cyclone is forecast to
turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken
during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down
considerably.  A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify
northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and
Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than
5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on
days 3-5.  The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south
of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast,
trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a
slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5.

Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident
upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a
tropical depression later today.  In fact, all of the global models
show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple
of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate
into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes.  If
Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a
little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 19.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.5N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 19.3N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.1N  48.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 19.0N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 19.0N  50.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 19.2N  50.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 20.6N  50.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 23.0N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg