000 WTPA42 PHFO 290238 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 44 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Even though Gilma is in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment, organized deep convection has failed to redevelop today, with only isolated thunderstorms forming in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are down to 35 kt from HFO, 30 kt from JTWC, and 25 kt from SAB, while CIMSS ADT came in at 33 kt. Based on expected weakening due to a lack of convection and a blend of these inputs, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The forward motion of Gilma remains nearly unchanged during the last day at 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will continue to steer the increasingly shallow cyclone toward slightly north of due west into Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Friday until dissipation near the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. The official forecast track was nudged slightly north from the prior advisory due to an adjustment in center position and remains near the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope near the TVCE. Gilma is expected to pass close to the Hawaiian Islands as it slowly degenerates to a remnant low late Thursday night or Friday. For the next 6 to 12 hours, Gilma will remain under a broad col aloft that will produce a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment of around 15 kt. This will likely be the only window for redevelopment of organized convection and for Gilma to maintain tropical storm intensity, even though SSTs will remain marginal, around 25.5 to 26C. As Gilma approaches an upper level trough building over Hawaii, vertical wind shear will increase late tonight through Friday, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression sometime Thursday and a remnant low Thursday night or Friday. The intensity forecast has been changed little from recent advisories, and is near the statistical guidance and ICON near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.5N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 19.8N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 20.3N 152.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.9N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 21.7N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 22.6N 159.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 23.8N 161.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wroe