000 WTPA42 PHFO 282037 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 43 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 The satellite presentation of Gilma has changed little since yesterday evening. Deep convection continues to pulse within the northern semicircle, periodically revealing an exposed low-level circulation. Subjective Dvorak estimates ranged from 2.0/30 kt from JTWC to 3.0/45 kt out of HFO, and CIMSS ADT recently came in at 33 kt. Given an overnight ASCAT pass with many 40 kt wind retrievals and the pulsing nature of the convection, the initial intensity of Gilma for this advisory has been held at 40 kt, which could be generous. Gilma's motion estimate remains unchanged at 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will continue to steer the increasingly shallow cyclone toward the west to west-northwest until it dissipates near the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. The track forecast was changed very little from the prior advisory and lies in the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope near TVCN and HCCA. Gilma is expected to gradually degenerate to a remnant low as it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands Friday and Saturday. With the system traversing under a broad col region aloft today, vertical wind shear is expected to relax by around 5 kt. Though SSTs along the track will remain marginal, around 25.5 to 26C, the reduced vertical wind shear could cause deep convection to briefly redevelop around the center in the short term. As Gilma approaches an upper level trough parked over Hawaii, vertical wind shear will increase tonight through Friday, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression sometime Thursday and a remnant low on Friday. The intensity forecast has been changed little from recent advisories, and is near HCCA and SHIPS on the weaker side of the guidance envelope beyond Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.0N 147.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.4N 148.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 19.9N 151.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 20.5N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 21.1N 155.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 21.9N 158.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 22.8N 160.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wroe