047 WTPA42 PHFO 281445 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ProxyVis satellite imagery shows Gilma's exposed low-level circulation center tracking just north of due west. Limited deep convection is forming a weak curved band north and northeast of the center, where an earlier ASCAT pass detected winds near 40 kt. This data, and a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB, supports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will continue to steer the shallow cyclone westward to west-northwestward until it dissipates near Kauai this weekend. There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and lies close to HCCA and FSSE guidance. Gilma is expected to gradually degenerate to a remnant low as it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands Friday into Saturday. Guidance indicates the strong westerly vertical wind shear currently impacting Gilma will briefly ease later today as a passing trough aloft lifts north, slowing the recent rapid weakening trend. Another trough aloft approaching from the west will bring even stronger vertical wind shear Thursday and Friday, eventually leading to dissipation. The new intensity forecast follows trends presented by the intensity consensus IVCN and SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.8N 145.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 19.6N 149.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.1N 152.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.7N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 156.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 22.3N 159.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard