Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Advisory

850 
WTPZ22 KNHC 190841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 121.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 122.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 128.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH