736 WTPZ42 KNHC 012039 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil has slightly strengthened over the past few hours. A scatterometer pass from 1710 UTC showed an area of near 50 kt vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. More recent geostationary satellite data shows fragmented convection, with a curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle. The imagery suggests Gil is experiencing a dry air intrusion wrapping around the storm's core. Based on the ASCAT data (accounting for instrument undersampling) and a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates the initial intensity is increased slightly to 60 kt. The initial motion is 290/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Gil should continue a west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. As the storm weakens, a turn to the west is forecast around day 4. The NHC track prediction is essentially unchanged from the previous cycle's forecast. Gil is currently crossing a cooling gradient of the sea surface temperatures and nearing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Therefore, the storm's chances for any significant strengthening are quickly diminishing. Beyond 12 hours, global models predict increasing shear and a dry and stable airmass will steadily weaken the storm for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest official intensity forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Gil is still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
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