834 WTPZ43 KNHC 301437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 The structure of Georgette continues to show evidence of northeasterly shear, with most of the convective activity occurring southwest of the estimated center. Persistent convection near the center of the storm, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory. The mid-level ridge to the west of Hurricane Frank continues to steer the tropical storm west-southwestward, with a current estimated motion of 255/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the day today, after which the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward motion during the next couple days. By 72 hours, Georgette is expected to begin moving northeastward under the influence of southwesterly steering flow. The track guidance diverges significantly after 36 hours, with many of the consensus aids indicating a delayed turn toward the north or northeast compared to the previous official forecast. The official forecast track is shifted westward from the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend of the HCCA and the previous forecast. The combined influences of east-northeasterly vertical shear and the proximity to Hurricane Frank are expected to limit the intensification of Georgette during the next several days. The intensity is forecast to hold steady during the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter before dissipating after 96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and aligned with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.0N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Beven