Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


834 
WTPZ43 KNHC 301437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

The structure of Georgette continues to show evidence of 
northeasterly shear, with most of the convective activity occurring 
southwest of the estimated center.  Persistent convection near the 
center of the storm, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak 
estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, continue to support an 
initial intensity of 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory. 

The mid-level ridge to the west of Hurricane Frank continues to 
steer the tropical storm west-southwestward, with a current 
estimated motion of 255/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue 
during the day today, after which the steering currents are 
expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward motion during the 
next couple days. By 72 hours, Georgette is expected to begin 
moving northeastward under the influence of southwesterly steering 
flow. The track guidance diverges significantly after 36 hours, 
with many of the consensus aids indicating a delayed turn toward 
the north or northeast compared to the previous official forecast. 
The official forecast track is shifted westward from the previous 
NHC forecast and represents a blend of the HCCA and the previous 
forecast. 

The combined influences of east-northeasterly vertical shear and 
the proximity to Hurricane Frank are expected to limit the 
intensification of Georgette during the next several days. The 
intensity is forecast to hold steady during the next day or so, 
with gradual weakening expected thereafter before dissipating after 
96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior 
forecast and aligned with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.0N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven




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