946 WTPZ43 KNHC 292037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Conventional satellite imagery shows that tiny Georgette has become less organized during the past few hours. Although a recent SSMIS overpass indicated that the inner core and eye-like feature have remained intact, the deep convection in the east semi-circle has thinned quite a bit, while the previously noted banding feature in the north portion of the cyclone has become fragmented. All of this is more than likely due to some increase in the northeasterly shear magnitude. The satellite subjective intensity estimates have decreased, and this advisory's initial intensity is set at 45 kt. The moderate deep-layer shear should persist during the next several days; some increase in the magnitude of the inhibiting upper wind component is forecast beyond 48 hours. This, along with a dry thermodynamic surrounding environment (45 to 50 percent RH in the mid-portions of the atmosphere) should induce slow weakening through the forecast period. There's still some uncertainty as to how long Georgette will survive. The GFS, however, is the only global model showing Georgette as a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low beyond day 4. Therefore, the intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is similar to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus forecasts. Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/10 kt. The forecast philosophy is unchanged. An east-northeast to a west-southwest-oriented mid-tropospheric ridge should cause the cyclone to move generally west-southwestward through the 48-hour period. Beyond mid-period, Georgette is expected slow its forward motion, turn northwestward, and then northeastward within the southeastern peripheral flow of larger and stronger Frank. The NHC forecast has changed little from this morning's advisory and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 14.7N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 13.5N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 13.4N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 16.1N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts