Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


946 
WTPZ43 KNHC 292037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Conventional satellite imagery shows that tiny Georgette has become
less organized during the past few hours.  Although a recent SSMIS 
overpass indicated that the inner core and eye-like feature have 
remained intact, the deep convection in the east semi-circle has 
thinned quite a bit, while the previously noted banding feature in 
the north portion of the cyclone has become fragmented.  All of 
this is more than likely due to some increase in the northeasterly 
shear magnitude.  The satellite subjective intensity estimates have 
decreased, and this advisory's initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

The moderate deep-layer shear should persist during the next several 
days; some increase in the magnitude of the inhibiting upper wind 
component is forecast beyond 48 hours.  This, along with a dry 
thermodynamic surrounding environment (45 to 50 percent RH in the 
mid-portions of the atmosphere) should induce slow weakening through 
the forecast period.  There's still some uncertainty as to how long 
Georgette will survive.  The GFS, however, is the only global model 
showing Georgette as a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low beyond 
day 4.  Therefore, the intensity forecast is an update of the 
previous one and is similar to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus 
forecasts.

Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 
255/10 kt.  The forecast philosophy is unchanged.  An east-northeast 
to a west-southwest-oriented mid-tropospheric ridge should cause the 
cyclone to move generally west-southwestward through the 48-hour 
period.  Beyond mid-period, Georgette is expected slow its forward 
motion, turn northwestward, and then northeastward within the 
southeastern peripheral flow of larger and stronger Frank.  The NHC 
forecast has changed little from this morning's advisory and lies 
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 14.7N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.2N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.8N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 13.5N 127.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 13.4N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 13.7N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 14.2N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 16.1N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Source link