715 WTPZ43 KNHC 291438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image. The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids. Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track, the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn. Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts