Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290238
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Georgette remains a very compact tropical storm. Satellite images 
show that the system remains sheared, with the low-level center 
estimated to be near on the northeast side of the main of area of 
deep convection.  The system's outflow is also restricted on the 
east side due to the shear.  The Dvorak estimates remains steady at 
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at 
that value.

The storm continues to move south of due west, or 260 degrees, at 10 
kt. A slightly slower west-southwest to southwest motion is expected 
during the next couple of days. However, as much larger and stronger 
Frank passes to the north, the steering flow should cause Georgette 
to stall and then turn northeastward or northward. The NHC track 
forecast has been adjusted southward during the first 48 hours and 
then eastward from 60-96 hours, trending toward the latest consensus 
models.

Georgette is expected to remain relatively steady in strength during 
the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear persists. 
However, after Frank passes to the north of Georgette, weakening 
should occur when the system moves along Frank's trough axis and 
gradually becomes more embedded in its circulation. The NHC 
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near 
the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Georgette is 
predicted to dissipate in 5 days, it is possible that it could open 
into a trough sooner than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.5N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.0N 121.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 14.3N 123.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 13.7N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 14.1N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 15.2N 123.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 18.7N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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