000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281538 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Corrected typo in first paragraph Georgette's structure on conventional satellite imagery remains distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in determining the center location on first-light visible, which appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A 1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60 hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3 days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one, attempting to the account for the possibility that the stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting these binary TC interactions. Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity diagnosed by SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could still import dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its current convective structure. After today, the majority of the guidance either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the latest intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual weakening is shown after that time. At 120 hours, Georgette is forecast to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or passes by to its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest agreement to the latest LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin