Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Georgette remains a compact tropical cyclone with a persistent area
of deep convection located near the center and over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. Moderate easterly shear is
currently limiting the convective activity over the southeastern
portion of the tropical cyclone. A couple of timely scatterometer
overpasses have been very helpful in locating the center overnight.
The ASCAT B instrument revealed peak winds of 36 kt.  Given the
small size of the tropical cyclone and typical undersampling of the
ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt.  That
is in line with the latest TAFB Dvorak T-number of T3.0.

There has been a change in the latest global model guidance
regarding the future of Georgette. The ECMWF which had been slowing
Georgette, and then moving the cyclone around the eastern portion
of Tropical Storm Frank's larger circulation now shows the smaller
Georgette opening up into a trough and being absorbed within
Frank's outer circulation within 72 hours.  That is in line with the
GFS and UKMET model guidance, and the majority of ensemble tracks
from the global models. Therefore, the updated NHC forecast now
calls for Georgette to dissipate within 96 hours, but this could
occur somewhat sooner.  In the shorter term, some slight 
strengthening is possible but moderate easterly is likely to 
prevent significant intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast is 
in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Georgette is now moving west-southwestward or 255/8 kt. A northeast
to southwest-oriented mid-level ridge should steer Georgette west-
southwestward to southwestward over the next day or two.  After
that time, Georgette's forward speed is expected to slow as some
binary interaction should occur between the two tropical cyclones.
Given the complexity of the forecast, the global model guidance is
in somewhat better agreement and the confidence in the first couple
of days of the forecast is a little higher than before. Beyond that
time however, there is again higher-than-normal uncertainty due to
future interaction of the cyclones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 15.8N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 15.3N 118.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 14.4N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 13.6N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 14.2N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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