Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


266 
WTPZ43 KNHC 311437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of 
Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration 
of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle. 
There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early 
this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests 
continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A 
blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT 
yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory 
intensity.

Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a 
mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the 
cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank 
passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to 
slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this 
week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by 
Frank.  By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen, 
forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC 
forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track 
guidance has changed little since that time. 

The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce 
some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to 
struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is 
forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore, 
Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a 
tropical depression through early this week.  There is some 
possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes 
over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible 
before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the 
previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity 
consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto




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