266 WTPZ43 KNHC 311437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle. There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory intensity. Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track guidance has changed little since that time. The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore, Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a tropical depression through early this week. There is some possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto