Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Georgette has maintained a consistent structure today, characterized 
by persistent convective activity to the south and southwest of the 
estimated center. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates 
that the storm has maintained its intensity, and recent microwave 
imagery suggests that the low-level circulation remains well 
defined. Thus the initial intensity is held constant at 45 kt, 
consistent with the prior advisory. 

East-northeasterly steering flow continues to influence the 
west-southwestward motion, which has not changed much since the 
prior advisory. The current estimated motion is 255/8 kt. Later 
tonight, the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in 
a slower forward speed by tomorrow. In association with the slowing 
forward speed, track guidance diverges after 24-36 hours, and the 
spread among the guidance members suggests high uncertainty in the 
track forecast after 36 hours. Some members of the guidance suite 
indicate a sharp turn toward the northeast, while others suggest a 
continued west-southwestward motion prior to turning northward later 
in the forecast period. The official track forecast is a compromise 
between these solutions, close to the HCCA and slightly to 
the west of the prior NHC forecast. 

The intensity forecast has not changed much since the prior 
advisory. East-northeasterly vertical wind shear, close proximity 
to the much larger Hurricane Frank, and a relatively dry airmass to 
the northeast of Georgette are expected to inhibit significant 
intensification throughout the forecast period. The intensity is 
forecast to remain steady for the next day or so, with gradual 
weakening forecast to occur after the storm turns toward the 
northeast. The official intensity forecast is in line with the 
consensus aids. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 13.6N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 13.3N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 13.1N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 13.1N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 13.4N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 15.5N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven



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