Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Frank Forecast Discussion


201 
WTPZ42 KNHC 272040
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

While Frank continues to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical 
wind shear, the shear seem to have diminished a little and the 
convection has become a little more concentrated just southwest of 
the low-level center.  The various subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have 
nudged a little upward since the last advisory.  Thus, the initial 
intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS 
satellite consensus estimate.

The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over
the next 12-18 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen.  Between
18-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is
over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could
allow for steady, and possibly rapid, intensification.  The 
intensity guidance now shows more strengthening than the runs 6 h 
ago, and based on this the first 96 h of the intensity forecast 
have been revised upward.  It should be noted that the new forecast 
peak intensity of 85 kt could be conservative, as the SHIPS, HFIP 
Corrected Consensus, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast a 
higher peak intensity.  After 72 h, the cyclone should move over 
cooler waters, and this should cause a steady weakening.

Frank is now moving westward with an initial motion of 280/9.  A 
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to 
steer Frank generally westward for the next 24-36 h, followed by a 
west-northwestward motion.  After 72 h, the cyclone is expected to
moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a
mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of
California.  The new official forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 60 h, and then is again nudged a little to 
the north of the previous forecast.  The new forecast is again 
close to or a little south of the various consensus models.

It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are 
likely to come close enough to one another to interact.  The global 
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant 
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only 
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 12.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 12.7N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 13.1N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 13.7N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 14.6N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 15.5N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 16.6N 117.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 21.0N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven




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