000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262043 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Convection near the center of Frank is struggling to organize, as several bursts since the prior advisory have been stripped away southwest of the center due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Cirrus from a more recent convective burst is currently covering the center. Today's scatterometer swaths just clipped the far eastern edge of Frank's circulation, and while there were some greater than 34-kt wind retrievals in ASCAT-B at around 1700 UTC, these values may have been rain contaminated, especially compared to the much lower ASCAT-C values less than an hour prior. Dvorak intensity estimates this afternoon were a consensus T2.5/35-kt from TAFB, SAB, and ADT. The intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory. The shear over Frank is not expected to abate for the next 36-48 hours, and in fact may increase a bit more as suggested by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. Both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperature also show convection continuing to be focused down-shear of the low-level circulation during this time frame, limiting intensification. One additional complicating factor is that another system located west of Frank could also interact with the tropical storm, though Frank should remain the dominant cyclone. Even after the shear abates in around 3 days, it is unclear what type of storm structure Frank will have at that time, and if it can take full advantage of the more favorable environmental conditions. For these reasons, the intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, showing a pause in strengthening between 12-36 hours, and then gradual intensification beginning afterwards. The latest intensity forecast remains on the low end of the intensity guidance, and remains closest to the LGEM model. Frank continues to move just north of due west at 280/10 kt. This general motion and heading should not change too much over the next 2-3 days as the storm remains steered by a large mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. A weakness in the ridge thereafter, as well as some possible interaction with the system west of Frank, may allow the storm to gain more latitude thereafter. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit north, and the latest track forecast follows suit, located roughly between the HCCA and GFEX aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.8N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.1N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 12.5N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 13.4N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 13.8N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.9N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 18.4N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin