Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Frank Forecast Discussion


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Only a tiny region of -45 to -50 degree Celsius cloud top 
temperatures remain with Frank southeast of its center this morning. 
In fact, the tropical cyclone appears well on its way to becoming a 
low-level cloud swirl devoid of any remaining deep convection. 
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range from 30-kt to 
45-kt this morning. Absent of any recent scatterometer data, but 
noting that the passes yesterday afternoon had a large region of 
greater than 40 kt winds, the initial intensity was held at 40-kt 
this advisory. Frank should continue to gradually spin down over 
20-22 C ocean waters as it moves further into a more stable 
environment. The meager amount of cold cloud tops near Frank now 
already do not meet the necessary criteria of a tropical cyclone, 
and it is likely the storm will become post-tropical later today. 
Most of the guidance now suggests Frank will open up into a trough 
by 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast, showing 
the remnant low dissipating about 300 n mi west of the California 
coast.

Frank is still moving to the northwest at 310/9 kt. Even as Frank
becomes more shallow, the low-level steering flow will still enable
Frank to recurve between a narrow low-level ridge off of the Baja
California peninsula and a prominent deep-layer trough well west of
California. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and only
slight changes were needed for the latest track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 24.0N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 25.2N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/0600Z 27.0N 126.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 28.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 31.0N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 32.8N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

NNNN



Source link