446 WTPZ42 KNHC 012037 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Frank's convection continues to fade as it maintains its trek over cooler waters. In response, both subjective and objective Dvorak numbers are decreasing. In addition, we received a direct overhead ASCAT-B pass at 1820 UTC, which showed a peak wind retrieval of 43-kt in the northern semicircle of the storm. Assuming a little undersampling from this instrument, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt this advisory, favoring the lower end of Dvorak estimates. Frank is still moving northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is little change in the track reasoning this cycle. Frank's track should gradually bend more poleward as it becomes a shallow vortex and is steered by the southerly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The latest NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is just a touch left of the previous forecast. Sea surface temperatures under the storm are already down to 22 C and only cool further along the forecast track. The latest model output from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF all suggest the remaining convection will fizzle out over the next 24 hours. The latest forecast now shows Frank becoming a post-tropical cyclone by that time-frame. It will take another few days for the large wind field of Frank to spin down enough for it to open up into a trough. This is expected to occur by Friday, well offshore southeastward of coastal California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 22.8N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 24.0N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 25.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/0600Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 29.4N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z 31.4N 127.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin