Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler
waters.  As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing 
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a 
blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred 
since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses.

Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next 
day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in 
intensity.  Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF 
models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36 
hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical 
cyclone by that time.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate 
within 3 to 4 days.

Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the 
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system 
weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn 
generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track 
prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly 
left of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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