Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 061448
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Fabio has remained steady this morning despite its close proximity 
to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cold cloud-top temperatures associated 
with the central dense overcast area that developed overnight have 
persisted this morning. Further, subjective and objective intensity 
estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS continue to suggest that Fabio is 
holding its own. Based on these estimates and recent satellite 
trends, the initial intensity estimate is held steady at 55 kt.

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
300/15 kt. Uncertainty remains among the track guidance solutions, 
particularly related to the interaction between Fabio and Emilia. 
The current forecast favors the ECMWF solution that Emilia will 
absorb Fabio, and the current forecast shows this merger occurring 
in about 36 hours. However, the GFS shows two cyclones that remain 
distinct and rotate around each other during the next three to four 
days.  The current forecast leans toward a merger and is similar to 
the prior advisory and better-performing consensus aids.

While Fabio remains in a favorable shear and thermodynamic 
environment, the proximity to Emilia should preclude significant 
strengthening.  The new NHC intensity forecast now shows Fabio 
remaining steady for the next 24 h before weakening slightly and 
subsequently merging into Emilia. This is close to the IVCN and 
HCCA consensus aids. However, based on the divergent solutions in 
the global models, a change in the forecast philosophy could be
required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 17.7N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett