Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep 
convection becoming more persistent.  Based on microwave data from 
the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath 
the northern portion of the convective area.  The latest subjective 
Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the 
latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt.  
The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but 
that could be a bit conservative.

The initial motion is now 300/16 kt.  Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a 
similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next 
36 h or so.  The new forecast track has only minor changes from the 
previous track.

Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so.  After that, 
no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to 
Emilia.  This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia 
Wednesday or Wednesday night.  Confidence in this forecast scenario 
is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts