Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


079 
WTPZ41 KNHC 200235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Compared to 24 hours ago, Estelle's cloud shield is more symmetric,
though the coldest cloud-top temperatures have been warming this
evening. The increased symmetry is likely due in part to afternoon
convection that was finally able to wrap around the northern
semicircle of the cyclone, as recently seen on a 0002 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass. This structural change was also likely aided by a
reduction in vertical wind shear today which is now estimated to be
less than 5 kt in the 0000 UTC SHIPS guidance. Dvorak satellite
estimates remain unchanged from earlier today, and given the earlier
peak scatterometer wind retrievals in the 50-52 kt range, the
initial intensity will be maintained at 55 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to track off to the west-northwest, 
with the latest motion estimated at 290/12 kt. A continued 
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days, 
albeit with a gradual bend westward as the cyclone becomes 
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level 
easterlies. Few changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast, 
and the current track remains close to the consensus aids TVCE and 
HCCA.

Estelle is currently crossing the 25C sea surface temperature (SST) 
isotherm and even cooler SSTs lie along the storm's path. Even with 
the lower vertical wind shear, these cooler waters in combination 
with an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere should cause the 
cyclone to gradually weaken over the next 24-48 hours. This forecast 
is in line with the intensity guidance consensus. Organized 
convection is likely to gradually fade away by 48 hours, when 
Estelle will be over 21C SSTs, and the latest forecast makes the 
system a post-tropical remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.2N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin




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