079 WTPZ41 KNHC 200235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Compared to 24 hours ago, Estelle's cloud shield is more symmetric, though the coldest cloud-top temperatures have been warming this evening. The increased symmetry is likely due in part to afternoon convection that was finally able to wrap around the northern semicircle of the cyclone, as recently seen on a 0002 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. This structural change was also likely aided by a reduction in vertical wind shear today which is now estimated to be less than 5 kt in the 0000 UTC SHIPS guidance. Dvorak satellite estimates remain unchanged from earlier today, and given the earlier peak scatterometer wind retrievals in the 50-52 kt range, the initial intensity will be maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to track off to the west-northwest, with the latest motion estimated at 290/12 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days, albeit with a gradual bend westward as the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level easterlies. Few changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast, and the current track remains close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Estelle is currently crossing the 25C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm and even cooler SSTs lie along the storm's path. Even with the lower vertical wind shear, these cooler waters in combination with an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next 24-48 hours. This forecast is in line with the intensity guidance consensus. Organized convection is likely to gradually fade away by 48 hours, when Estelle will be over 21C SSTs, and the latest forecast makes the system a post-tropical remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin