000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Deep convection reformed over the center today while the vertical wind shear abated. Data from a recent scatterometer pass showed that Estelle still has winds of at least 55 kt, which will be used for the advisory intensity. This is a little above most of the Dvorak estimates. Based on the current intensity trend and the forecast for weak vertical wind shear, it seems possible that Estelle may maintain its strength for about 12 hours while over marginal sea surface temperatures. Within a day or so, the storm is forecast to be over even cooler waters and within a drier mid- to low-level environment which should result in weakening. Estelle is predicted to be a remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is close the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance. The forward motion of the storm has increased slightly to 12 kt while Estelle moves west-northwestward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. This general trajectory is likely to continue for the next few days until the weakening circulation becomes more shallow and is steered by the low-level winds. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory prediction, and is quite similar to the multi-model consensus aid, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci