823 WTPZ41 KNHC 190836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Northerly shear continues to take a toll on Estelle. Its low-level center appears to be partially exposed in proxy visible satellite imagery, with its associated deep convection limited in coverage and confined to the southern and eastern portions of its circulation. Estelle is no longer a hurricane, and recent ASCAT-B and -C data showed peak derived winds of 45-50 kt in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. After accounting for some undersampling, the initial intensity of Estelle is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. Estelle is expected to continue weakening. Although the deep-layer shear is likely to diminish within the next 12-24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today and move over progressively cooler SSTs through midweek. The NHC intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and calls for steady weakening over the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will struggle to generate deep, organized convection later this week as it moves into a drier and more stable airmass. Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, but it could take a couple more days for the low to open into a trough and dissipate. The initial motion of Estelle is westward at 280/11 kt, but it is expected to turn west-northwestward later today as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. This ridge will keep Estelle on a west-northwestward heading for the next few days. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically shallow, the low-level trade wind flow should steer the remnant low more westward on days 4-5. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.6N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart