113 WTPZ41 KNHC 161448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt. Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5. Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days. There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart