Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


373 
WTPZ41 KNHC 160836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle has become much better organized during the past several
hours. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that
deep convection has increased near the center and an inner core has
formed. An ASCAT pass from around 05Z showed maximum winds of around
40 kt, but since Estelle is a compact tropical cyclone it likely did
not resolve its peak winds. The Dvorak classifications at 06Z from
TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin were all 3.0/45
kt. Since Estelle has continued to organize since then, the initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, in line with the
latest automated values from CIMSS.

The tropical storm seems poised to strengthen further as Estelle is
expected to remain in generally favorable atmospheric and oceanic
conditions. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index shows about
50 percent of RI occurring, and given the environment and
well-defined structure, the NHC forecast now calls for RI to occur
during the next 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear should
cause the intensity to plateau in the 36-72 hour period, followed by
weakening when Estelle moves over cooler waters and into a drier air
mass. This forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and
lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to gradually build
westward, which should keep Estelle on a general west-northwest
track during the next several days. The models have shifted a
little to the south and are faster this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This prediction still lies
on the northern side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 13.6N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Source link