Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210837
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle is nearing the end of its run as a tropical cyclone. A 0243 
UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small curved band of inner core 
convection, but since then, only sporadic convective bursts have 
occurred near its center while the inner core cloud top temperatures 
have warmed. Objective and subjective satellite estimates continue 
to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this 
advisory. Without organized convection near its center, Estelle will 
continue to weaken as it moves into a drier airmass over 21-22 C 
SSTs. It is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later 
today, and the remnant low should open into a trough and dissipate 
this weekend.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 290/11 kt. The system is 
expected to slow down over the next couple of days and gradually 
turn westward as it becomes steered by a low-level ridge over the 
eastern North Pacific. The NHC track forecast lies near or just
south of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, which is similar to the 
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 22.3N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 22.6N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0600Z 23.0N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1800Z 23.2N 128.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0600Z 23.4N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1800Z 23.5N 131.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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