Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210239
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Convection near the center of Estelle has actually cooled a bit from 
earlier today, with cloud tops below -60C currently covering the 
circulation center, though the areal extent is quite small. Despite 
this activity, Dvorak satellite classifications continue to slowly 
decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt for 
this advisory. This brief convective resurgence is likely the 
storm's last gasp before even cooler sea-surface temperatures below 
22 C and an increasingly dry and stable airmass choke off the 
remaining core convection. The latest forecast still shows Estelle 
become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with this low 
opening up into a trough in 2-3 days.

Estelle may be finally starting to slow down, with its latest motion 
estimated at 290/10 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate 
that the storm should slow down further over the next day or so as 
Estelle transitions from being steered by a mid-level ridge to its 
northeast to a broader low-level ridge located across the northern 
Pacific. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted close to 
the previous NHC forecast track and few changes were needed for this 
forecast cycle.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 21.8N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Source link