000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Convection near the center of Estelle has actually cooled a bit from earlier today, with cloud tops below -60C currently covering the circulation center, though the areal extent is quite small. Despite this activity, Dvorak satellite classifications continue to slowly decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt for this advisory. This brief convective resurgence is likely the storm's last gasp before even cooler sea-surface temperatures below 22 C and an increasingly dry and stable airmass choke off the remaining core convection. The latest forecast still shows Estelle become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with this low opening up into a trough in 2-3 days. Estelle may be finally starting to slow down, with its latest motion estimated at 290/10 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate that the storm should slow down further over the next day or so as Estelle transitions from being steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast to a broader low-level ridge located across the northern Pacific. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted close to the previous NHC forecast track and few changes were needed for this forecast cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin