Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


384 
WTPZ41 KNHC 202039
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Small bursts of convection continue near and over the center of 
Estelle, but this convection is not especially deep with coldest 
cloud tops of around -50 to -55 degrees C.  A recent scatterometer 
pass over the center showed surface winds not exceeding 40 kt.  To 
account for undersampling, the initial intensity estimate is only 
reduced to 45 kt.  This is also consistent with the Dvorak current 
intensity estimate from TAFB.  The scatterometer data also revealed 
that tropical-storm-force winds are only occurring over the northern 
semicircle of the cyclone.  Estelle is currently over sea surface 
temperatures of around 23 degrees C.  The storm is expected to be 
over even cooler waters within a day, likely inhibiting convection. 
The official forecast shows Estelle becoming a post-tropical remnant 
low within a day and dissipated within 72 hours.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster 13 kt.  
However, the tightly clustered guidance insists that the cyclone's 
forward speed will be decreasing over the next couple of days.  A 
large mid-level ridge associated with a high pressure system 
centered over the southwestern US should continue to steer Estelle 
in the same general direction through the forecast period.  The NHC 
track prediction is a little bit faster than the forecast from the 
previous advisory and a little north of the multi-model consensus 
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.6N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




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