Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 201438
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to 
and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation.  A 
microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the 
northeastern quadrant.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged 
from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.  
Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the 
storm passes over increasingly cooler waters.  Estelle is predicted 
to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day.  The official intensity 
prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no 
major changes from the previous advisory forecast.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  Estelle 
is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast 
and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward 
speed is likely to continue through 72 hours.  The NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE 
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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