Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities

173 
FOPZ15 KNHC 070250
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052024               
0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA CLARION   34 20   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

15N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 115W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

20N 115W       34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

15N 120W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 120W       34  2  29(31)  48(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
20N 120W       50  X   3( 3)  40(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN