Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070253
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Emilia continues to display a large cold convective area on infrared 
satellite imagery. A helpful 06/2108 UTC AMSR2 pass indicated that 
the center of Emilia was a bit farther to the northeast than 
previously thought. This places the center farther away from the 
middle of the central convective area, and closer to the northern 
edge of the deep convection. This is not surprising, since the SHIPS 
intensity guidance continues to diagnose 15 to 20 kt of 
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the CIMSS ADT is showing 
a current intensity of 59 kt, the farther north placement of the 
center relative to the convection means that the cyclone might not 
be quite that strong. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this 
advisory.

Emilia has been moving just west of due north, or 350/8-kt. Emilia 
should gradually turn more toward the northwest over the next 24 h 
as it gets closer to Tropical Storm Fabio, which is currently 
located only about 260 n mi north of Emilia. After Emilia absorbs 
Fabio in 24 to 36 h, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected. 
The west-northwest motion should continue after that time, as 
Emilia weakens and is steered more by the low-level flow.

Emilia is still feeling the effects of moderate northeasterly wind 
shear, as mentioned above. The shear is forecast to diminish in 12 
to 24 h, but interactions with Fabio's circulation could complicate 
the intensity forecast. Some slight intensification is possible 
during the next 12-18 h if Emilia is able to fight off the moderate 
wind shear. Emilia is expected to move into SSTs colder than 26C in 
24-36 h, so steady weakening is forecast beyond that time. The 
latest intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests 
that Emilia should become a remnant low by 96 h, and the NHC 
forecast follows suit with those solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven