Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

648 
WTPZ45 KNHC 061446
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Following a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation 
overnight, Emilia has remained steady this morning. Scatterometer 
data overnight showed a well-organized circulation, and a 
combination of subjective Dvorak estimates and objective intensity 
estimates indicate that the intensity has not changed much since 
the prior advisory. Thus, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this 
advisory.

Emilia has begun a turn toward the west-northwest, but the 
motion remains an uncertain 300/5 kt. Emilia and Tropical 
Storm Fabio are in the midst of a complex interaction, which will 
determine the fate of both storms. The systems are forecast to 
rotate slightly around each other, prior to Emilia becoming the 
dominant storm. Of note is that the global GFS and ECMWF ensemble 
systems show different solutions, with the GFS solution keeping 
Emilia and Fabio more distinct. The current advisory leans toward 
Emilia becoming dominant, absorbing Fabio, and turning westward over 
the next several days. The current forecast is similar to the prior 
forecast and near the consensus models.

The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast 
challenging. The current forecast favors the solution in which 
Emilia absorbs Fabio in a few days. Thus, steady intensification is 
forecast over the next 24 h, with Emilia reaching hurricane 
strength on Wednesday.  While the timing of the merger is uncertain, 
the storm is forecast to gradually weaken into a remnant low by the 
end of the forecast period as it moves over cooler ocean waters and 
into a generally less favorable environment.  Due to the 
uncertainty associated with the interaction with Tropical Storm 
Fabio, changes to Emilia's forecast could be necessary in later 
advisory packages.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.0N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 14.7N 115.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 18.7N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 21.2N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 22.9N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 23.9N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hogsett